BTC Update Monday 16th September

Monday 16 September 2013

Happy Monday People!

On the one hand its been a relatively benign period for bitcoin markets, but on the other we seem to be establishing a 'lower high' and this is never great news for the bulls.

Anyway, this is how it looks on the chart:

BTC+Update+16+Sep.png

As you can see the highest we have been is around $148, but we just don't seem to be able to make it back up to this level at the second time of asking.  So what does this mean?

Well, it could be that the lower high currently forming is a prelude to a move lower still, but this won't be confirmed unless or until the market trades through rising support (diagonal green line), horizontal support at $125 and the most recent low to something like $118.  In other words a meaningful change in sentiment has to be confirmed by both a lower high AND a lower low.

For the moment all we really have is consolidation, and based on the fact that markets don't like change, the most probable outcome of the current consolidation (known by technicians as a 'flag' or 'pennant') is an upside breakout followed by a continuation of the uptrend.

With this in mind, while the current price is not an ideal place to buy, we might well be tempted back into the market long at a rejection of rising support or, indeed, anywhere down to around $125.

Happy trading,

Rob @ BitScan


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