BTC Update Monday 29th July

Monday 29 July 2013

From our last post: "we suspect that another dip, probably back down to around $92, is on the cards as the market searches for new buyers."

Here's the Chart:

The Red arrow highlights the dip that subsequently triggered. In the event the market 'found those buyers' at $93.

More significantly still, it has done nothing but rally ever since, culminating in powerful surge during North American trading that carried it through the $97 resistance zone (that had held it down all last week) like a hot knife through butter.

So, what next? Well, what we are seeing right now is a retest of that same level ($97) as support; indeed it may already have happened. This has potentially cleared the way for a rally to at least $104 and possibly $112 in the near term, depending on the amount of frustrated buying power that had built up in the system.

Having said this, jumping onto this potential rocket ship right now does not represent a great risk to reward ratio for active traders as it is still possible that the market 'fakes-out' on this occasion and we drop back into the range. Since the market learns nothing more unless it trades back South through $90, a trade executed at current levels would need to carry as much risk as it might gain (in the soirt term) to make sense. It's rarely wise to 'chase the breakout'.

The area in which to buy was at 'around $92', as - dare we say it - we suggested 48 hours ago.

Of course, bitcoin investors will care little for this detail, in for the long haul they will been waiting for this buy trigger and joining the rally around now - and this is fair enough. As ever in trading, time-scale is everything!

In the meantime, we hope that regular readers of this analysis profited from our recommendations over the weekend. We'd love to hear from you if you did; indeed, feedback is always welcome.


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