Five predictions for 2016
Monday 04 January 2016
Futuregazing is never a precise science, but it’s the time of year when we traditionally go out on a limb and take a few shots in the dark. So, here are five predictions for the new year.
1. It’s going to be brutal for big companies. VC firms have thrown money at bitcoin-related projects. It’s been uneasily similar to what happened in the late 90s, when a rudimentary website was all that was needed to attract millions of dollars of investment. 2016 is the year when those companies need to start proving they are viable and providing revenues. Some are going to collapse spectacularly, others are going to need to downsize or take a long, hard look at what they’re doing - and perhaps asking whether their current revenue model is realistic. Smaller companies and those with low burn rates are likely to last the distance better.
Happy new year! It's going to be... interesting.
2. The landscape is going to clear. That’s not only true of the companies that will thin out depending on whether they can stand on their own feet. There are hundreds of altcoins that offer very little of interest. The long bear market weakened them, and now bitcoin’s rise in price is sucking the oxygen out of the rest of the market. When the dust settles, expect a large proportion of alts to fade into permanent obscurity.
3. Bitcoin will bubble again. We’ve had almost two years of the bear and that’s been more than enough. Bitcoin has doubled in price since October, including a mini-bubble to $500. Why should speculators behave any different this time? There’s no point predicting a top price because it would just be plucking figures from the wind. What? Fine then: $2,500.
4. The blocksize issue will be fixed - but only just. BIP-100 is the frontrunner, but one way or another we’re going to see significantly greater blockchain capacity. However, as little as possible will be changed for political reasons, and we’ll see a predictable continuation of centralisation in mining and those running full nodes. Developers will take a hands-off approach to the poisoned chalice that is maintaining the bitcoin code, leaving third party services to come up with all the innovation.
5. Bitscan goes large. We’ve been putting in the work on the marketplace, we’ve got a great platform, some great merchants, and we’re ready to roll it all out on a grand scale. We hope you’ll be joining us!
Have a great new year!
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